Notice: Undefined index: slug in /home/z7wdyktw/pinmybis.net/wp-includes/class-wp-theme-json.php on line 1110

Notice: Undefined index: slug in /home/z7wdyktw/pinmybis.net/wp-includes/class-wp-theme-json.php on line 1110

Notice: Undefined index: slug in /home/z7wdyktw/pinmybis.net/wp-includes/class-wp-theme-json.php on line 1110
Connect with us

News

RBA Faces Credibility Challenge as Markets Push Yield Envelope

Published

on


Article content

(Bloomberg) — Reserve Bank of Australia chief Philip Lowe faces a major communications challenge on Tuesday as speculation mounts he will scrap a bond-yield target after the central bank allowed a market selloff to continue without defending it.

Yields started surging after data on Wednesday showed core inflation jumped back into the RBA’s 2-3% target for the first time since 2015. At one point on Friday traders drove up the rate on the April 2024 bond, which the bank aims to keep at 0.1%, to more than eight times that level as the RBA skipped opportunities to hold the yield down.

Advertisement

Article content

At least half a dozen economists now expect the RBA to drop the yield target at the meeting. One early pointer to a potential U-turn would be the announcement of a press briefing after the meeting, which Lowe typically calls when there is a major policy change.

“What is the point of having the target if you don’t defend it?” said Diana Mousina, senior economist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. “People will question their credibility, but at the end of the day they are still the central bank and people will still follow what they say and look at their communication very closely.” 

The predicament the RBA finds itself in is the latest example of how unexpectedly strong inflation around the globe is putting pressure on central bankers to rethink their policy timelines as the tradeoff between supporting pandemic-hit economies and overjuicing prices shifts.

Advertisement

Article content

The Bank of Canada ended its bond-buying stimulus last Wednesday and the Federal Reserve is seen announcing a pullback of its debt purchases in the coming days. The Bank of England also faces inflationary forces that have markets anticipating a hike at Thursday’s meeting or the one just before Christmas.

Lowe has set out his stall as one of the world’s most dovish central bankers, having struggled for years to boost inflation. He says Australia doesn’t face the sort of price pressures seen in the U.S. and U.K. 

He predicts interest rates will remain at a record-low 0.1% until 2024, by which time a tight labor market should drive faster wage growth for sustainable inflation. 

In tandem with the bond selloff, swaps traders boosted bets on an early start to Australia’s tightening cycle. They’re pricing in a first hike by May and for the cash rate to reach 1% by the end of 2022.

Advertisement

Article content

While most economists see the market bets in Australia as an exaggerated response to one inflation report many of them have also brought forward their rate hike forecasts. The median estimate among surveyed economists is for a 15 basis point hike in early 2023.

Indeed, with vaccination rates surging and New South Wales and Victoria states emerging from protracted virus-induced lockdowns earlier than expected, the portents for the economy’s rapid recovery are good. 

What Bloomberg Economics Says

“While underlying inflation has temporarily returned to the target band, conditions for inflation to be sustained — a broad, sustained, pickup in wage growth — remain elusive.”

–James McIntyre, economist. For more, click here

Advertisement

Article content

The strong inflation reading appears to have caught the RBA flat-footed in a pre-meeting period during which it prefers not to comment on policy. That has left a void to be filled by investors and economists until the central bank gets its chance to explain itself on Tuesday.

“The RBA had built a lot of reputational capital from its pandemic interventions, but that risks significant undoing now if the framework is abandoned very early,” said JPMorgan economist Ben Jarman. 

He said the risk from scrapping the yield target on Tuesday was that policy will prove to be less stimulatory in future downturns, “under the fear that commitments can be pulled at short notice.”

Yet even if the RBA decides to leave policy and guidance unchanged this week it will still come out bruised, according to Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at Royal Bank of Canada.

“The market would believe them even less than they do now, if that is possible,” she said.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

Bloomberg.com

Advertisement

Comments

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.



Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

News

Bank of England raises base interest rate to 1.75%

Published

on


The Bank of England has raised the base interest rate by half a percentage point to 1.75 per cent, the biggest rise since 1995, in an attempt to combat runaway inflation.

The nine-strong monetary policy committee voted eight to one in favour of a 50 basis point rise, defying some market expectations for an increase by 25 basis points.

It is the Bank’s sixth consecutive tightening in monetary policy and follows in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, which have begun aggressively raising rates by larger increments.

Interest rates are now the highest since 2009 as the Bank attempts to bring down inflation, which is running at a 40-year high of 9.4 per cent and is on course to exceed 11 per cent later this year.

These would be the worst inflation rates in the G7, caused in large part by rising global energy prices driving household bills higher this year. The UK economy is also heading for a slowdown this year as consumer incomes are squeezed more tightly than since the 1950s.

Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, has hinted that it will also announce how it intends to begin unwinding the £850 billion of government debt pumped into the economy since the financial crisis, offloading bonds worth between £50 billion and £100 billion from as early as next month.

The Bank will also deliver its quarterly outlook, with Bailey expected to forecast that inflation will rise beyond 11 per cent and remain in double digits into next year. The Bank’s target is 2 per cent.

Commenting on today’s Bank of England interest rate rise, David Bharier, Head of Research at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said: “This rise is the clearest signal yet of the Bank of England’s intention to get inflation under control. Spiralling prices are cited by businesses as by far and away the top concern right now.

“However, given the extremely precarious state of the economy, this decision is not without risk for businesses and consumers that are exposed to banking or overdraft facilities.

“There are many causes of the current inflation crisis – global supply chain problems, trade barriers, soaring energy costs, increased taxes, and labour market shortages. Interest rate rises alone will do little to address these.

“Worryingly, our research indicates strongly that most small businesses are not investing for growth, and that longer-term confidence is beginning to wane.





Source link

Continue Reading

News

Opinion: OSC appointment fuss is a tempest in a teapot

Published

on


Jeffrey MacIntosh: The government has the legislated right to have a say in the agency’s course

Article content

Ed Waitzer’s recent op-ed (“The issue at the OSC is integrity, not debate,” July 14, 2022) expresses surprise and disappointment in my recent op-ed (“Conflict at the OSC: Why the regulator needs to make room for dissent,” July 7, 2022). In that op-ed, I argued that lawyer Heather Zordel’s appointment as non-executive chair of the OSC in March of this year should be met with open arms, as it introduces new points of view into what seems to be a rather intellectually closed shop. I don’t suppose it will come as a shock to Ed Waitzer or anyone else that I am surprised and disappointed at his rebuttal.

Advertisement 2

Article content

To begin with, it contains a number of inaccuracies. It states that Ms. Zordel was denied reappointment to her earlier position (2019-2021) as part-time commissioner. In fact, given her busy legal practice, she took herself out of the running. This puts a rather different complexion on the matter.

And I never stated or implied that Ms. Zordel was not reappointed as part-time commissioner because of two dissenting opinions that she wrote as commissioner. My point was that for Ms. Zordel’s critics the dissents were a factor in opposing her appointment as chair of the board.

The nub of my argument was that the OSC could benefit from greater variety of viewpoints among its brass as to what investor protection and other aspects of the OSC’s mission entail. By contrast, Mr. Waitzer argues: “the importance of debate and dissent is not the point here.” I beg to differ. As I indicated, some prominent accounts of Ms. Zordel’s appointment have put a pejorative cast on her disagreements with her fellow commissioners. That puts the issue of debate and dissent front and centre.

Advertisement 3

Article content

I certainly agree with Mr. Waitzer that the independence of administrative agencies is a cornerstone of our democracy. But does that mean that every administrative agency should be entirely divorced from any government oversight whatsoever — a little fiefdom unto itself and in no sense answerable to its political masters? Not a whit. It is the government that creates the agency, defines its mandate, gives it the powers that it needs to carry out that mandate and defines its organizational structure. And it is entirely within the purview of the government to enlist its legislative power to re-define that mandate, powers, and organizational structure if it chooses.

We don’t have to look into the distant past to find an example. On the advice of a non-partisan blue ribbon panel — the Capital Markets Modernization Taskforce (“CMMT”) — the Conservative government has recently substantially reorganized the OSC via the Securities Commission Act, 2021 (declared in force in April). That legislation splits the adjudicative function (the “Capital Markets Tribunal”) from the regulatory function. Moreover, where before the reorganization the OSC Chair and CEO were the same person, the two offices are now split. As expressed by the CMMT, “The Board of Directors, led by the Chair, (will) focus on the strategic oversight and corporate governance of the regulator,” while “The CEO (will) be responsible for the overall management of the organization and execution of the OSC’s mandate.” The directors, including the chair, are all government appointees.

Advertisement 4

Article content

This new structure, recommended by a non-partisan committee, gives the government of the day the power to influence, at the highest level, the strategic direction of the OSC. But why should it not? If the government is dissatisfied with the strategic vision or regulatory philosophy of the regulator or the manner in which it is being implemented, it would be profoundly anti-democratic — and at odds with the rule of law — to forbid the government from seeking to alter the agency’s course.

Indeed, the Ontario Securities Act states “The Commission is an agent of the Crown in right of Ontario.” The key word here is “agent.” It is not “hegemony,” “fiefdom” or “satrapy.” At the end of the day, the OSC is a government creation performing regulatory functions ceded to it by the government.

Advertisement 5

Article content

Do Ms. Zordel’s conservative connections compromise the independence of the institution of which she is now head? Absolutely not. In the making of such appointments, the twin issues of competence and integrity will take up a lot of shelf space. But why should the government not also consider, if it chooses, whether potential nominees share the government’s regulatory philosophy

The true worry about political interference is that the government might attempt to dictate or influence the result of particular cases. But the new legislation builds in the important protection of ceding no operational powers to the board of directors. Thus, aside from the government’s power to approve or decline proposed rule changes (a longstanding feature of securities regulation), its sole discretionary avenue of influence lies in its power to appoint directors and hence influence high-level strategic direction.

Advertisement 6

Article content

What is left of the argument that there has been inappropriate political interference over the OSC? Only the assertion that Ms. Zordel and three other part-time commissioners were appointed without the government having consulted the OSC, as has customarily been done. Yes, it would have been better if the government had consulted the OSC. In all likelihood, however, the outcome would have been the same. The OSC might not like not having been consulted but at best this is a foible not a fiasco.

In the end, this tempest easily fits within a standard-issue teapot.

Financial Post

Jeffrey MacIntosh is a professor of law at the Faculty of Law, University of Toronto, and a director of the Canadian Securities Exchange.

Advertisement

Comments

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.



Source link

Continue Reading

News

BlackRock’s Fink blames investment climate ‘not seen in decades’ for profit miss

Published

on


BlackRock results fell short of sharply reduced expectations in what it described as the worst environment in decades as falling asset prices and a rising dollar drove assets under management down to $8.5tn.

The world’s largest money manager’s adjusted earnings fell 30 per cent to $7.36 per share on $4.4bn in revenue for the quarter ending June 30. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had been expecting $7.90 a share, on revenue of $4.65bn.

BlackRock and other asset managers have been hit hard by volatile markets that have unsettled investors and pushed down the value of the portfolios from which they draw management fees.

The group has delayed hiring for some senior positions until 2023 and total spending on employee pay and benefits fell by 5 per cent from the first quarter. Although there is no firm-wide hiring freeze, BlackRock is trying to hold down costs by “juniorising” their work force: hiring less experienced people to fill open positions.

Assets under management dropped 11 per cent, marking the second consecutive quarterly drop after peaking at $10tn at the end of 2021. State Street’s asset management arm reported on Friday that its AUM had also fallen 11 per cent to $3.5tn.

As a global manager, BlackRock has also felt the impact of a rising dollar, which has reduced the value of fees derived in other currencies. While revenue was down 6 per cent overall, base fees were flat in constant currency terms.

“The first half of 2022 brought on a combination of macro financial and economic challenges that investors have not seen in decades . . . 2022 ranks as the worst start in 50 years for both stocks and bonds,” Larry Fink, the group’s founder and chief executive, said on an earnings call.

Fink hailed the group’s ability to generate $90bn in net inflows despite the grim news, saying it was “demonstrating our ability to deliver industry-leading flows even in these most challenging environments . . . BlackRock’s position has never been stronger.”

BlackRock’s shares, which had lost one-third of their value in 2022, were down slightly morning trading.

Operating margins compressed to 43.7 per cent, dragged down by higher expenses for technology as well as travel and entertainment, even as revenues fell.

“Even [BlackRock] isn’t immune to a market downturn. However, we were impressed with [their] ability to sustain robust asset inflows in choppy markets,” said Kyle Sanders, analyst at Edward Jones, adding that he expected BlackRock’s continued spending on strategic growth areas “will likely dampen profit margins in the near-term [but] we think it bolsters their competitive advantage.”

The group’s iShares exchange traded funds platform drew the bulk of new investor money, with $52bn in net inflows, and its cash platform reached record levels with $21bn in net new money as customers fled to safety and took advantage of rising interest rates.

While some market experts have predicted that volatile markets will lead investors to cut their allocations to ETFs and other passive vehicles, so far that has not been the case. Gary Shedlin, BlackRock’s chief financial officer said that institutional investors are increasingly using ETFs to reposition their portfolios rather than buying and selling individual stocks and bonds directly.

“We expect bond industry ETF assets will nearly triple and reach $5tn at the end of the decade . . . Rising rates will bring a whole new set of investors,” Fink said.

Retail funds fared worse, with net outflows of $10bn, and BlackRock’s performance fees for its advisory services were down sharply year on year. But products that use environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria continue to attract new money and now manage $473bn in assets.

The company’s technology division proved to be a bright spot. Revenue rose 5 per cent year on year, and Fink said the company had received record new mandates for its Aladdin system, which helps other financial services companies manage risk.

“BlackRock has always capitalised on market disruption and emerged stronger,” said Shedlin said. “We have navigated these choppy waters before.”

The AUM figures do not include several very large institutional mandates for outsourced investment management that BlackRock has recently won from AIG and General Dynamics, among others. “We are going to see an acceleration . . we see this as a real opportunity for us,” Fink said.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending