Wall Street stocks diverged on Monday as traders reacted to the news that Joe Biden had nominated Jay Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve for a second term, with Lael Brainard selected as nominee for vice-chair.
The US’s blue-chip S&P 500 equity index rose 0.4 per cent in the New York afternoon, hitting a fresh intraday record high on the strength of financial and energy stocks. By contrast, after rising at the open, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index dipped 0.4 per cent.
Tech stocks are considered particularly sensitive to rising interest rates, with Powell’s renomination expected to result in a more hawkish tilt to the US central bank’s policy than had Brainard been chosen as candidate for Fed chair.
In government debt markets, the yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose to its highest level since March 2020 and was last up 0.07 percentage points to 0.58 per cent, “speaking to the hawkish implications of the nomination for 2022 in particular”, noted BMO strategists on Monday morning.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose around 0.07 percentage points to 1.62 per cent. Bond yields move inversely to their prices.
Anthony Collard, head of investments for the UK and Ireland at JPMorgan Private Bank, said the prospect of a second term for Powell was “a positive, on balance”.
“His navigation of the crisis [while] maintaining growth proves to us he has done a commendable job,” Collard said.
Equity markets were subdued across the Atlantic. European stocks had edged up during their afternoon session but later fell. Several countries in the bloc were last week forced to reimpose pandemic restrictions.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 share index closed 0.1 per cent lower on Monday, having fallen 0.3 per cent during the previous trading day.
Protests broke out in Austria, Italy and Belgium among other European countries over the weekend, after governments stepped up coronavirus restrictions in response to higher numbers of infections.
London’s FTSE 100 share index closed 0.4 per cent higher.
Elsewhere, Asian stock markets were mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.4 per cent while China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.5 per cent. Emerging market equities more broadly were down on Monday following selling pressure last week as investors increasingly shifted their attention towards developed economies where interest rates were expected to rise over the coming year.
A broad FTSE barometer of EM stocks dipped 0.9 per cent in US dollar terms, having fallen 1.4 per cent over the course of last week.
In currencies, the dollar index — measuring the greenback against six other currencies — moved up 0.5 per cent. The euro fell about 0.4 per cent against the US currency to $1.124, its lowest level since summer last year as traders bet the bloc’s central bank would stick to ultra-low borrowing costs even as US and UK policymakers were expected to raise rates.
The Turkish lira hit roughly TL11.4 to the dollar on Monday, its weakest-ever level. Last week the country’s central bank cut interest rates by 1 percentage point to 15 per cent. The currency has fallen more than 30 per cent this year as rates have been slashed from 19 per cent at the start of September, against a backdrop of high inflation.
Brent crude, the oil benchmark, rose to a high of $80.07 and was last up 1 per cent to $79.62 a barrel.
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The Bank of England has raised the base interest rate by half a percentage point to 1.75 per cent, the biggest rise since 1995, in an attempt to combat runaway inflation.
The nine-strong monetary policy committee voted eight to one in favour of a 50 basis point rise, defying some market expectations for an increase by 25 basis points.
It is the Bank’s sixth consecutive tightening in monetary policy and follows in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, which have begun aggressively raising rates by larger increments.
Interest rates are now the highest since 2009 as the Bank attempts to bring down inflation, which is running at a 40-year high of 9.4 per cent and is on course to exceed 11 per cent later this year.
These would be the worst inflation rates in the G7, caused in large part by rising global energy prices driving household bills higher this year. The UK economy is also heading for a slowdown this year as consumer incomes are squeezed more tightly than since the 1950s.
Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, has hinted that it will also announce how it intends to begin unwinding the £850 billion of government debt pumped into the economy since the financial crisis, offloading bonds worth between £50 billion and £100 billion from as early as next month.
The Bank will also deliver its quarterly outlook, with Bailey expected to forecast that inflation will rise beyond 11 per cent and remain in double digits into next year. The Bank’s target is 2 per cent.
Commenting on today’s Bank of England interest rate rise, David Bharier, Head of Research at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said: “This rise is the clearest signal yet of the Bank of England’s intention to get inflation under control. Spiralling prices are cited by businesses as by far and away the top concern right now.
“However, given the extremely precarious state of the economy, this decision is not without risk for businesses and consumers that are exposed to banking or overdraft facilities.
“There are many causes of the current inflation crisis – global supply chain problems, trade barriers, soaring energy costs, increased taxes, and labour market shortages. Interest rate rises alone will do little to address these.
“Worryingly, our research indicates strongly that most small businesses are not investing for growth, and that longer-term confidence is beginning to wane.
Jeffrey MacIntosh: The government has the legislated right to have a say in the agency’s course
The Ontario Securities Commission is an “agent” of the provincial government. As such, Jeffrey MacIntosh argues it has the right to appoint representatives who reflect its outlook.Photo by National Post
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Ed Waitzer’s recent op-ed (“The issue at the OSC is integrity, not debate,” July 14, 2022) expresses surprise and disappointment in my recent op-ed (“Conflict at the OSC: Why the regulator needs to make room for dissent,” July 7, 2022). In that op-ed, I argued that lawyer Heather Zordel’s appointment as non-executive chair of the OSC in March of this year should be met with open arms, as it introduces new points of view into what seems to be a rather intellectually closed shop. I don’t suppose it will come as a shock to Ed Waitzer or anyone else that I am surprised and disappointed at his rebuttal.
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To begin with, it contains a number of inaccuracies. It states that Ms. Zordel was denied reappointment to her earlier position (2019-2021) as part-time commissioner. In fact, given her busy legal practice, she took herself out of the running. This puts a rather different complexion on the matter.
And I never stated or implied that Ms. Zordel was not reappointed as part-time commissioner because of two dissenting opinions that she wrote as commissioner. My point was that for Ms. Zordel’s critics the dissents were a factor in opposing her appointment as chair of the board.
The nub of my argument was that the OSC could benefit from greater variety of viewpoints among its brass as to what investor protection and other aspects of the OSC’s mission entail. By contrast, Mr. Waitzer argues: “the importance of debate and dissent is not the point here.” I beg to differ. As I indicated, some prominent accounts of Ms. Zordel’s appointment have put a pejorative cast on her disagreements with her fellow commissioners. That puts the issue of debate and dissent front and centre.
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I certainly agree with Mr. Waitzer that the independence of administrative agencies is a cornerstone of our democracy. But does that mean that every administrative agency should be entirely divorced from any government oversight whatsoever — a little fiefdom unto itself and in no sense answerable to its political masters? Not a whit. It is the government that creates the agency, defines its mandate, gives it the powers that it needs to carry out that mandate and defines its organizational structure. And it is entirely within the purview of the government to enlist its legislative power to re-define that mandate, powers, and organizational structure if it chooses.
We don’t have to look into the distant past to find an example. On the advice of a non-partisan blue ribbon panel — the Capital Markets Modernization Taskforce (“CMMT”) — the Conservative government has recently substantially reorganized the OSC via the Securities Commission Act, 2021 (declared in force in April). That legislation splits the adjudicative function (the “Capital Markets Tribunal”) from the regulatory function. Moreover, where before the reorganization the OSC Chair and CEO were the same person, the two offices are now split. As expressed by the CMMT, “The Board of Directors, led by the Chair, (will) focus on the strategic oversight and corporate governance of the regulator,” while “The CEO (will) be responsible for the overall management of the organization and execution of the OSC’s mandate.” The directors, including the chair, are all government appointees.
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This new structure, recommended by a non-partisan committee, gives the government of the day the power to influence, at the highest level, the strategic direction of the OSC. But why should it not? If the government is dissatisfied with the strategic vision or regulatory philosophy of the regulator or the manner in which it is being implemented, it would be profoundly anti-democratic — and at odds with the rule of law — to forbid the government from seeking to alter the agency’s course.
Indeed, the Ontario Securities Act states “The Commission is an agent of the Crown in right of Ontario.” The key word here is “agent.” It is not “hegemony,” “fiefdom” or “satrapy.” At the end of the day, the OSC is a government creation performing regulatory functions ceded to it by the government.
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Do Ms. Zordel’s conservative connections compromise the independence of the institution of which she is now head? Absolutely not. In the making of such appointments, the twin issues of competence and integrity will take up a lot of shelf space. But why should the government not also consider, if it chooses, whether potential nominees share the government’s regulatory philosophy
The true worry about political interference is that the government might attempt to dictate or influence the result of particular cases. But the new legislation builds in the important protection of ceding no operational powers to the board of directors. Thus, aside from the government’s power to approve or decline proposed rule changes (a longstanding feature of securities regulation), its sole discretionary avenue of influence lies in its power to appoint directors and hence influence high-level strategic direction.
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What is left of the argument that there has been inappropriate political interference over the OSC? Only the assertion that Ms. Zordel and three other part-time commissioners were appointed without the government having consulted the OSC, as has customarily been done. Yes, it would have been better if the government had consulted the OSC. In all likelihood, however, the outcome would have been the same. The OSC might not like not having been consulted but at best this is a foible not a fiasco.
In the end, this tempest easily fits within a standard-issue teapot.
Financial Post
Jeffrey MacIntosh is a professor of law at the Faculty of Law, University of Toronto, and a director of the Canadian Securities Exchange.
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